Remembering Dr. C. Fremont Sprague (posted 10/31)

C. Fremont (“Monty”) Sprague was an innovative mathematician who participated in the early development of computer applications for magazine circulation applications. BY ROBERT M. COHN

By
Wednesday, October 31, 2007

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By Robert M. Cohn, consumer marketing director, Bonnier Corp.

C. Fremont (“Monty”) Sprague was an innovative mathematician who participated in the early development of computer applications for magazine circulation applications. He developed one of the first Source Evaluation (“lifetime value”) models and the first multi-title circulation planning model which facilitated sophisticated analysis of marketing trade-offs in the publishing business.

Monty grew up in Oklahoma, and majored in mathematics as an undergraduate and graduate student. After receiving his Ph.D., he was recruited to work on the secret Manhattan Project at the Las Alamos laboratory in New Mexico.

Subsequently, he migrated to the San Diego area and became involved in the development of innovative systems analysis, operations research, and optimization projects.

Monty’s involvement in the publishing industry began in the late 1960’s, when he met up with John Suhler (then publisher of Psychology Today) and Mark Earley (then the Psychology Today circulation manager).  

At the time, he was working for a large computer software firm called Systems, Science, and Software (S-cubed), which primarily was doing large-scale systems work for the US Navy. It was during the Vietnam War, and Monty and another employee (Don Goyette, who subsequently became his partner) objected to spending their days, as Monty said, “figuring out how to kill people in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.”  

He asked his management if he could start a new division of the company, seeking to apply some of their technology from the military applications to private-sector business. After starting up that group, he was introduced to John Suhler, who suggested that they might look at opportunities to “computerize” the circulation planning business and help the magazine determine its optimal rate base.

After spending some time with Mark Earley, Monty and Don developed the first crude version of the Source Evaluation model over a weekend, and delivered the software and hardware to the Psychology Today office in Del Mar. For the next 3 days, the Psychology Today circulation department played “what if” games—and Monty’s bonding to the publishing industry began.

When Psychology Today was sold to Ziff Davis in the early 1970’s, they sold the Psychology Today model to Neodata, for development as a multiclient offering for Neodata clients.  

After working as a consultant to Neodata for a year or two, Monty and Don set up their own business, Policy Development Corporation, in 1974 to develop and enhance their publishing model. U.S. New & World Report in Washington became their first client, under the auspices of Richard LePere, who had been the promotion manager at Psychology Today.

Meanwhile,  John Suhler and circulation director Bob Krefting had moved to CBS Publications (now Hachette Filapacchi), and as a young circulation staffer there, I was urged to try out this new computer tool. I loved it. CBS Publications became the second major client of PDC, followed by Texas Monthly, Architectural Digest, New York magazine and many other prestigious publishers.

In 1979, PDC opened its first New York office for marketing and client service. As the publishing world became more sophisticated in computer analysis, the company’s business grew 50 percent a year for several years in a row. During the early 1980’s, the PDC staff worked with over 60 publishing companies representing over 150 different publications—specializing in budgeting, long-range planning, analysis, start-ups and acquisitions using the PDC Circulation Model.

The training classes and annual client seminars that characterized the PDC approach helped train and educate a generation of circulation professionals, now widely scattered throughout the industry.

As technology changed, the initialization of circulation models became much more integrated into fulfillment operations, and PDC’s business started to decline in the 1990’s, although the PDC pc-based model is still being used at a few publishers.

In recent years, Monty’s health deteriorated and he retired, but he leaves fond memories among those in the industry who were his clients and his friends.


A NOTE FROM BAIRD DAVIS

Monty not only was the first in the computer circulation modeling business, but for the next 20 years, until the 90’s, the “Spraque Model” set the industry standard for circulation modeling excellence. 

At its peak, the Sprague model was being employed by more than 50 percent of the publishing companies with more than 500k aggregate paid circ. Monty’s company was Southern California based (never far from his favorite surfing spot), but he also staffed a sizable New York City sales and support office. 

His company went on to develop other important computer model systems for assisting in production and advertising. But it's for his pioneering work in circulation modeling that he will remain justifiably famous.

The pervasive industry use of his model helped transform the practice of circ in the 70's and 80's. I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say that he was instrumental in lifting the industry’s circulation management standards. Because of his low key demeanor, he was, perhaps, one of the most under appreciated circulation greats of his time—nevertheless a circulation giant whose legacy still resonates today.